SUNY Prof: Trump Has 87% Chance of Winning

Is this SUNY (State University of New York) a crackpot, just an outlier, or is the Jurassic Media lying? A real head scratcher, no?


Here’s an interview that Prof. Norpoth did with Stuart Varney on Fox Business channel last February.

I don’t claim to know that Trump will win, although I believe he will, but that depends on whether what we used to call the “Silent Majority” shows up at the polls on November 8, 2016 (or before, since the silly early voting thing as already started), as the professor explains.

Frome Syracuse.com:

A SUNY professor continues to project Donald Trump as the likely winner of this year’s election and he’s critiquing polls that predict the opposite in a new opinion piece.

Helmut Norpoth has been predicting a Trump victory since early this year. His model currently projects a win for the Republican with a certainty of 87 to 99 percent.

Norpoth is a professor at Stony Brook University on Long Island.

Because it depends who shows up.

That flies in the face of just about every other major election forecast out there, which mostly give an edge to Democrat Hillary Clinton, notes the Daily Mail.

Norpoth wrote in The Hill that although the race looks decided, current polling methods are “bunk.”

The projections for Clinton are all based on opinion polls, which are flawed because they don’t reflect actions, Norpoth wrote. They’re about what voters think of Clinton or Trump, but they can’t tell us exactly how voters will act on those thoughts.

“It is ingrained in all of us that voting is civic duty,” he says. “So nearly all of us say, oh yes, I’ll vote, and then many will not follow through.”

Here is more from his website, PrimaryModel.com:

In a match-up between the Republican primary winner and each of the Democratic contenders, Donald Trump is predicted to defeat Hillary Clinton by 52.5% to 47.5% of the two-party vote. He would defeat Bernie Sanders by 57.7% to 42.3%.

For the record, the PRIMARY MODEL, with slight modifications, has correctly predicted the winner of the popular vote in all five presidential elections since it was introduced in 1996.  In recent elections the forecast has been issued as early as January of the election year.

Presidential elections going back as far as 1912 are used to estimate the weight of primary performance.  It was in 1912 that presidential primaries were introduced. That year the candidate who won his party’s primary vote, Woodrow Wilson, went on to defeat the candidate who lost his party’s primary vote, William Howard Taft.  As a rule, the candidate with the stronger primary performance wins against the candidate with the weaker primary performance.  For elections from 1912 to 2012 the PRIMARY MODEL picks the winner, albeit retroactively, every time except in 1960.

So is he right? What do you think? If you are hoping for a Trump victory, what are you doing to make it happen? Please share your thoughts in the comments below. Thanks!

The Teri O'Brien Show

book